FairValue

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Portrait of Edin Dzeko

Edin

Dzeko

CFBosnia-Herzegovina · FC Schalke 04

№ 28396Emerging €906k +0.10

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

EdinDzeko

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Schalke 04
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
40
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dzeko at €1M. Model A, which never saw Dzeko during training, estimates €906k: the market value is 10% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.10A €906k▼ −0.02B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
3,584
Goals
22
Assists
8
Started
37/64
Min / app
56
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dzeko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €906k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Edin Dzeko's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 9th, European club minutes 94th92ndGoals70thAssists75thMinutes48thStarts9thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

31% this player0% attacker median94th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jan 2006
Peak
€32M
Feb 2012
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
51
7 club changes
Jun 2026€1MFC Schalke 04Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, FC Schalke 04. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2006-01-31€200kFK Teplice
2007-06-26€4MFK Teplice
2008-01-01€4.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2008-06-04€5MVfL Wolfsburg
2009-01-21€7.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2009-03-21€10MVfL Wolfsburg
2009-04-21€12.5MVfL Wolfsburg
2009-06-10€18MVfL Wolfsburg
2009-11-18€25MVfL Wolfsburg
2010-06-15€30MVfL Wolfsburg
2011-01-12€30MManchester City
2011-08-08€28MManchester City
2012-02-06€32MManchester City
2012-06-24€29MManchester City
2013-01-28€27MManchester City
2013-07-02€27MManchester City
2014-01-15€24MManchester City
2014-08-12€27MManchester City
2015-02-12€24MManchester City
2015-07-01€20MManchester City
2015-11-05€18MAS Roma
2016-01-04€15MAS Roma
2016-07-15€12MAS Roma
2016-10-14€13MAS Roma
2017-01-02€15MAS Roma
2017-03-28€18MAS Roma
2017-06-08€22MAS Roma
2017-12-29€22MAS Roma
2018-06-07€25MAS Roma
2018-12-20€23MAS Roma
2019-06-06€14MAS Roma
2019-12-12€14MAS Roma
2020-04-08€11MAS Roma
2020-08-25€10MAS Roma
2020-12-29€8MAS Roma
2021-03-23€5MAS Roma
2021-06-03€4MAS Roma
2021-12-28€4MInter Milan
2022-06-07€4MInter Milan
2022-11-11€4MInter Milan
2023-06-15€4MInter Milan
2023-09-27€4MFenerbahce
2023-12-21€3.6MFenerbahce
2024-03-15€3.3MFenerbahce
2024-05-31€2.7MFenerbahce
2024-10-04€2.5MFenerbahce
2024-12-23€2.2MFenerbahce
2025-03-20€2MFenerbahce
2025-06-18€1.6MFenerbahce
2025-12-23€1.5MACF Fiorentina
2026-06-01€1MFC Schalke 04

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.099

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dzeko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).