Rasmus
Nicolaisen
CBDenmark · FC Toulouse
Player dossierLigue 1
RasmusNicolaisen
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- FC Toulouse
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Nicolaisen at €5M. Model A, which never saw Nicolaisen during training, estimates €5.2M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 39
- Minutes
- 3,192
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 37/39
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nicolaisen…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
95% this player83% defender median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2016
- Peak
- €6M
- Jun 2023
- Model target
- €5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 23
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €5M, FC Toulouse. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-12 | €50k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2016-12-12 | €50k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2017-06-21 | €250k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2017-12-18 | €200k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2018-06-02 | €200k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2018-12-21 | €500k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2019-06-08 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2019-12-22 | €700k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2020-04-08 | €550k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2020-07-31 | €600k | FC Midtjylland |
| 2021-12-27 | €900k | FC Toulouse |
| 2022-03-24 | €1.2M | FC Toulouse |
| 2022-06-02 | €1.8M | FC Toulouse |
| 2022-09-19 | €4M | FC Toulouse |
| 2022-11-02 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2023-06-27 | €6M | FC Toulouse |
| 2023-12-18 | €6M | FC Toulouse |
| 2024-06-03 | €6M | FC Toulouse |
| 2024-12-10 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2025-06-03 | €4.5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2025-10-10 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2025-12-15 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
| 2026-06-01 | €5M | FC Toulouse |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.049
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 45% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Nicolaisen appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SaïdSSRC Lens · Ligue 1€5M
- ThauvinRWRC Lens · Ligue 1€5M
- LopezDMParis FC · Ligue 1€5M
- HeinRWFC Metz · Ligue 1€5M
- OrbánCBRB Leipzig · defenders€5M
- GinterCBSC Freiburg · defenders€5M
- GuerreiroLBBayern Munich · defenders€5M
- TarkowskiCBEverton FC · defenders€5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).