FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ivan

Zlobin

GKRussia · FC Famalicão

№ 282654Emerging €440k +0.82

Player dossierLiga Portugal

IvanZlobin

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Famalicão
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Russia
Age
29
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zlobin at €1M. Model A, which never saw Zlobin during training, estimates €440k: the market value is 127% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €663k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.82A €440k▲ +0.41B €663k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
1,350
Started
15/15
Min / app
90
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zlobin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €440k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ivan Zlobin's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd27thMinutes62ndStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€175k
Aug 2015
Peak
€1.5M
Dec 2019
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
May 2026€1MFC FamalicãoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-25€175kCSKA Moscow II
2016-09-30€150kSL Benfica B
2017-06-30€100kSL Benfica B
2017-09-08€300kSL Benfica B
2018-02-23€400kSL Benfica B
2018-06-29€800kSL Benfica B
2019-02-12€1MSL Benfica
2019-06-07€1MSL Benfica
2019-12-30€1.5MSL Benfica
2020-04-08€1.2MSL Benfica
2020-08-17€1.2MSL Benfica
2021-01-28€800kFC Famalicão
2021-05-21€600kFC Famalicão
2021-12-27€400kFC Famalicão
2022-05-31€400kFC Famalicão
2022-11-01€300kFC Famalicão
2023-06-16€300kFC Famalicão
2023-12-27€300kFC Famalicão
2024-06-06€300kFC Famalicão
2024-10-08€700kFC Famalicão
2024-12-19€1.5MFC Famalicão
2025-05-30€1.5MFC Famalicão
2025-12-18€1.5MFC Famalicão
2026-05-28€1MFC Famalicão

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.821

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 48% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zlobin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).