FairValue

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Erik

Palmer-Brown

CBUnited States · Panathinaikos

№ 282199Emerging €3.4M −0.80

Player dossierSuper League

ErikPalmer-Brown

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
United States
Age
29
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Palmer-Brown at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Palmer-Brown during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.80A €3.4M▼ −1.03B €4.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,878
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
31/35
Min / app
82
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Palmer-Brown…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Erik Palmer-Brown's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 49th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 72nd, European club minutes 98th49thGoals17thAssists50thMinutes65thStarts72ndRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

41% this player0% defender median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2015
Peak
€3M
May 2022
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
8 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-03-01€100kSporting Kansas City
2016-03-14€50kFC Porto B
2016-09-30€100kFC Porto B
2017-07-17€100kSwope Park Rangers
2017-12-05€300kSporting Kansas City
2018-06-03€500kKV Kortrijk
2018-12-28€700kNAC Breda
2019-06-12€600kNAC Breda
2019-12-16€700kAustria Vienna
2020-04-08€550kAustria Vienna
2020-07-22€1MAustria Vienna
2020-12-21€1MAustria Vienna
2021-06-02€1.5MAustria Vienna
2021-12-16€1.5MESTAC Troyes
2022-03-23€2MESTAC Troyes
2022-05-30€3MESTAC Troyes
2022-11-02€3MESTAC Troyes
2023-06-27€2.5MESTAC Troyes
2023-12-20€2MPanathinaikos
2024-03-06€1.8MPanathinaikos
2024-05-30€1.2MPanathinaikos
2024-12-18€1MPanathinaikos
2025-05-23€900kPanathinaikos
2025-09-23€1MPanathinaikos
2025-12-12€1.5MPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€1.5MPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.804

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 73% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Palmer-Brown appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).