FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Stefano

Moreo

CFItaly · Pisa Sporting Club

№ 279823Emerging €1.3M −0.06

Player dossierSerie A

StefanoMoreo

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Pisa Sporting Club
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
32
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moreo at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Moreo during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 6% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €818k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.06A €1.3M▲ +0.38B €818k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,388
Goals
7
Assists
1
Started
30/38
Min / app
63
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moreo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Stefano Moreo's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 13th, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 28th50thGoals13thAssists53rdMinutes82ndStarts84thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,388 this player1,301 attacker median84th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Sept 2013
Peak
€1.6M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
28
7 club changes
May 2026€1.2MPisa Sporting ClubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Pisa Sporting Club. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-09-20€75kVirtus Entella
2014-03-07€150kVirtus Entella
2014-07-15€175kVirtus Entella
2015-02-10€150kVirtus Entella
2015-06-29€125kVirtus Entella
2016-01-15€175kTeramo Calcio 1913
2016-06-17€200kTeramo Calcio 1913
2016-12-14€200kVenezia FC
2017-06-21€300kVenezia FC
2017-12-21€500kVenezia FC
2018-06-18€700kUS Palermo
2019-01-17€1MUS Palermo
2019-06-05€1.6MUS Palermo
2019-12-30€1.2MFC Empoli
2020-04-08€950kFC Empoli
2020-08-21€950kEmpoli FC
2021-02-22€900kEmpoli FC
2021-06-24€800kEmpoli FC
2021-12-29€800kBrescia Calcio (- 2025)
2022-06-06€1MBrescia Calcio (- 2025)
2022-12-22€1MBrescia Calcio (- 2025)
2023-06-12€1.2MPisa Sporting Club
2023-12-27€1MPisa Sporting Club
2024-06-03€800kPisa Sporting Club
2024-12-23€1MPisa Sporting Club
2025-06-02€1.5MPisa Sporting Club
2025-12-23€1.5MPisa Sporting Club
2026-05-29€1.2MPisa Sporting Club

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.058

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 11% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 34% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moreo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).