DavidBates

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club: Standard Liège
League: Pro League
Nationality: Scotland
Age: 29
Height: 193 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bates at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Bates during training, estimates €964k: the market value is 87% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €786k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 27
Minutes: 2,157
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 24/27
Min / app: 80
Cards: 3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bates…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

89% this player83% defender median66th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €13k; Oct 2013
Peak: €2.8M; Oct 2024
Model target: €1.8M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 27; 7 club changes

Jun 2026€1.8MStandard LiègeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Standard Liège. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2013-10-08	€13k	Raith Rovers FC
2017-02-14	€50k	Rangers FC
2018-03-04	€250k	Rangers FC
2018-08-21	€400k	Hamburger SV
2018-10-16	€900k	Hamburger SV
2019-01-08	€2M	Hamburger SV
2019-06-12	€2M	Hamburger SV
2019-10-17	€1.5M	Sheffield Wednesday
2020-02-27	€600k	Sheffield Wednesday
2020-04-08	€475k	Sheffield Wednesday
2020-10-16	€500k	Cercle Brugge
2021-03-17	€700k	Cercle Brugge
2021-06-07	€700k	Cercle Brugge
2021-12-31	€600k	Aberdeen FC
2022-06-27	€450k	Aberdeen FC
2022-11-04	€650k	KV Mechelen
2023-06-09	€800k	KV Mechelen
2023-10-23	€600k	KV Mechelen
2023-12-19	€600k	KV Mechelen
2024-03-22	€1M	KV Mechelen
2024-06-04	€2M	KV Mechelen
2024-10-02	€2.8M	Standard Liège
2024-12-11	€2.8M	Standard Liège
2025-06-12	€2.2M	Standard Liège
2025-10-01	€1.5M	Standard Liège
2025-12-10	€1.2M	Standard Liège
2026-06-04	€1.8M	Standard Liège

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.625

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 47% of the 350 Pro League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 48% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Bates appears

TerminalPro League in the Player Explorer
TerminalPro League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).