IgorKalinin

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club: Panserraikos
League: Super League
Nationality: Russia
Age: 30
Height: 185 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kalinin at €500k. Model A, which never saw Kalinin during training, estimates €372k: the market value is 35% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €570k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 40
Minutes: 2,889
Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Started: 33/40
Min / app: 72
Cards: 14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kalinin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,889 this player2,860 defender median51st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Jan 2015
Peak: €900k; Jun 2023
Model target: €500k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 24; 8 club changes

Jun 2026€500kPanserraikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Panserraikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2015-01-13	€100k	Zorya Lugansk
2015-06-07	€200k	Zorya Lugansk
2015-12-18	€200k	Zorya Lugansk
2017-01-03	€200k	Volgar Astrakhan
2017-06-01	€200k	Volgar Astrakhan
2017-12-05	€400k	Volgar Astrakhan
2018-06-06	€500k	FC Krasnodar
2018-12-20	€850k	Rubin Kazan
2019-06-14	€700k	Rubin Kazan
2019-12-23	€500k	Dinamo Moscow
2020-04-08	€400k	Ural Yekaterinburg
2020-07-29	€500k	Ural Yekaterinburg
2020-12-29	€600k	Ural Yekaterinburg
2021-06-02	€800k	Ural Yekaterinburg
2021-12-29	€800k	FC Rostov
2022-06-02	€750k	FC Rostov
2022-11-21	€700k	Fakel Voronezh
2023-06-14	€900k	Fakel Voronezh
2023-12-13	€700k	Fakel Voronezh
2024-06-04	€700k	Fakel Voronezh
2024-12-12	€750k	Fakel Voronezh
2025-06-04	€700k	Fakel Voronezh
2025-12-12	€600k	Panserraikos
2026-06-04	€500k	Panserraikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.297

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Kalinin appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).