FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Joan

Jordán

CMSpain · Sevilla FC

№ 263727Emerging €1.6M −0.48

Player dossierLaLiga

JoanJordán

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Sevilla FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
31
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Jordán at €1M. Model A, which never saw Jordán during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €788k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.48A €1.6M▲ +0.24B €788k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
1,790
Goals
5
Assists
2
Started
19/32
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Jordán…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Joan Jordán's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 89th, Assists per 90 53rd, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 33rd, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th89thGoals53rdAssists31stMinutes33rdStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.25 this player0.08 midfielder median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jul 2015
Peak
€30M
Mar 2021
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1MSevilla FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Sevilla FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€300kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2016-02-22€800kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2016-07-15€600kRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2017-01-24€800kReal Valladolid CF
2017-06-29€1MReal Valladolid CF
2018-01-01€3.5MSD Eibar
2018-05-30€4MSD Eibar
2018-10-31€5MSD Eibar
2018-12-21€8MSD Eibar
2019-02-28€10MSD Eibar
2019-06-11€12MSD Eibar
2019-09-10€14MSevilla FC
2019-12-20€18MSevilla FC
2020-04-08€14.5MSevilla FC
2020-10-08€20MSevilla FC
2021-01-05€25MSevilla FC
2021-03-19€30MSevilla FC
2021-06-10€30MSevilla FC
2021-12-30€30MSevilla FC
2022-06-03€22MSevilla FC
2022-09-23€18MSevilla FC
2022-11-07€14MSevilla FC
2023-03-23€12MSevilla FC
2023-06-13€9MSevilla FC
2023-10-13€6MSevilla FC
2023-12-22€5MSevilla FC
2024-03-21€4MSevilla FC
2024-06-07€3.5MSevilla FC
2024-12-27€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2025-06-09€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2025-12-12€2MSevilla FC
2026-06-05€1MSevilla FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.476

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Jordán appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).