FairValue

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Niclas

Eliasson

RMSweden · AEK Athens

№ 251813Established €1.7M +0.57

Player dossierSuper League

NiclasEliasson

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
30
Height
178 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Eliasson at €3M. Model A, which never saw Eliasson during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 77% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.77. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €897k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.57A €1.7M▲ +1.21B €897k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,288
Goals
4
Assists
7
Started
25/44
Min / app
52
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Eliasson…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Niclas Eliasson's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 43rd, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 32nd, European club minutes 76th74thGoals94thAssists43rdMinutes30thStarts32ndRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.28 this player0.09 midfielder median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2013
Peak
€5M
Feb 2020
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
5 club changes
Jun 2026€3MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-22€200kFalkenbergs FF
2014-06-26€250kAIK
2015-04-11€250kAIK
2015-06-14€200kAIK
2015-11-29€200kAIK
2016-06-17€150kAIK
2016-12-11€400kAIK
2017-06-20€800kIFK Norrköping
2017-09-18€1.5MBristol City
2018-02-27€1.5MBristol City
2018-09-24€1.5MBristol City
2019-06-28€1.5MBristol City
2020-02-27€5MBristol City
2020-04-08€4MBristol City
2020-10-15€4MNîmes Olympique
2021-01-07€3MNîmes Olympique
2021-06-04€3MNîmes Olympique
2021-10-27€2.5MNîmes Olympique
2021-12-27€2.5MNîmes Olympique
2022-06-02€2.5MNîmes Olympique
2022-11-07€2.5MAEK Athens
2023-05-22€2.5MAEK Athens
2023-12-20€3MAEK Athens
2024-05-30€4.5MAEK Athens
2024-12-18€4.5MAEK Athens
2025-05-23€4MAEK Athens
2025-12-12€3.5MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€3MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.570

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 86% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Eliasson appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).