FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Oleksandr

Kapliyenko

LBUkraine · LNZ Cherkasy

№ 248931Emerging €256k −0.25

Player dossierPremier Liha

OleksandrKapliyenko

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
LNZ Cherkasy
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
29
Height
179 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kapliyenko at €200k. Model A, which never saw Kapliyenko during training, estimates €256k: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €427k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €256k▼ −0.76B €427k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,376
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
16/20
Min / app
69
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kapliyenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €256k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Oleksandr Kapliyenko's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists20thMinutes44thStarts7thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

80% this player83% defender median44th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2014
Peak
€800k
Jul 2016
Model target
€200k
Dec 2025
Valuations
27
12 club changes
Dec 2025€200kLNZ CherkasyValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €200k, LNZ Cherkasy. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-06-30€100kMetalurg Zaporizhya II
2014-12-25€400kMetalurg Zaporizhya
2015-06-07€600kMetalurg Zaporizhya
2015-12-17€600kMetalurg Zaporizhya
2016-07-15€800kAlanyaspor
2017-01-03€600kChornomorets Odesa
2017-06-26€500kChornomorets Odesa
2018-01-12€400kChornomorets Odesa
2018-06-01€300kFK Smolevichi (- 2021)
2018-12-04€250kFK Smolevichi (- 2021)
2019-06-16€200kMFC Metalurg Zaporizhya
2019-09-05€100kDinamo Tbilisi
2020-01-04€250kDinamo Tbilisi
2020-07-29€500kPFK Tambov
2020-12-29€600kPFK Tambov
2021-05-24€600kTorpedo Moskau
2021-09-15€550kTorpedo Moskau
2021-12-07€500kTorpedo Moskau
2022-06-13€450kFK Auda
2022-09-06€400kMetalist Kharkiv
2022-12-06€400kMetalist Kharkiv
2023-06-21€400kSC Dnipro-1
2023-12-11€500kSC Dnipro-1
2024-06-06€500kLNZ Cherkasy
2024-12-17€300kLNZ Cherkasy
2025-06-10€300kLNZ Cherkasy
2025-12-18€200kLNZ Cherkasy

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.245

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 10% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kapliyenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).