FairValue

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Federico

Bonazzoli

CFItaly · US Cremonese

№ 241527Established €4M −0.47

Player dossierSerie A

FedericoBonazzoli

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
US Cremonese
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
29
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bonazzoli at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Bonazzoli during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.47A €4M▼ −0.41B €3.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
2,583
Goals
10
Assists
2
Started
32/36
Min / app
72
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bonazzoli…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Federico Bonazzoli's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 21st, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 28th67thGoals21stAssists58thMinutes93rdStarts89thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

89% this player59% attacker median93rd percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€900k
May 2014
Peak
€5M
Aug 2020
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
30
11 club changes
May 2026€2.5MUS CremoneseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, US Cremonese. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-05-18€900kInter Milan Primavera
2015-01-07€2.5MInter Milan
2015-07-01€3.5MUC Sampdoria
2016-01-04€3.2MUC Sampdoria
2016-06-13€2.8MSS Virtus Lanciano
2016-12-19€2.5MBrescia Calcio
2017-06-09€2MBrescia Calcio
2017-12-29€1.8MSPAL 2013
2018-06-07€1.5MSPAL 2013
2019-01-17€1.5MCalcio Padova
2019-06-05€1.5MCalcio Padova
2019-12-12€2MUC Sampdoria
2020-04-08€1.6MUC Sampdoria
2020-08-25€5MUC Sampdoria
2020-12-29€5MTorino FC
2021-03-23€4.5MTorino FC
2021-06-03€4MTorino FC
2021-12-28€3.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2022-06-07€5MUS Salernitana 1919
2022-11-11€5MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-03-21€4.5MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-06-15€4MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-12-20€3MHellas Verona
2024-06-05€2.5MHellas Verona
2024-10-15€1.5MUS Cremonese
2024-12-23€1.3MUS Cremonese
2025-06-02€1MUS Cremonese
2025-12-23€2.2MUS Cremonese
2026-03-24€2.5MUS Cremonese
2026-05-29€2.5MUS Cremonese

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.470

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 24% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bonazzoli appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).