FairValue

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Mark

O'Hara

DMScotland · St. Mirren FC

№ 235780Emerging €192k +0.95

Player dossierPremiership

MarkO'Hara

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
St. Mirren FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
30
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values O'Hara at €500k. Model A, which never saw O'Hara during training, estimates €192k: the market value is 160% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.95A €192k▼ −0.84B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
4,198
Goals
4
Assists
4
Started
48/52
Min / app
81
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for O'Hara…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €192k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mark O'Hara's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 46th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 49th, European club minutes 65th51stGoals46thAssists77thMinutes90thStarts49thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player69% midfielder median90th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2013
Peak
€800k
Dec 2024
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
24
3 club changes
May 2026€500kSt. Mirren FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, St. Mirren FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-02-14€50kKilmarnock FC
2013-10-08€175kKilmarnock FC
2014-02-13€175kKilmarnock FC
2014-10-08€175kKilmarnock FC
2015-12-07€250kKilmarnock FC
2017-02-14€300kDundee FC
2018-03-04€450kDundee FC
2020-02-05€350kMotherwell FC
2020-04-08€300kMotherwell FC
2020-07-21€300kMotherwell FC
2021-01-18€600kMotherwell FC
2021-06-28€600kMotherwell FC
2021-12-31€550kMotherwell FC
2022-06-27€450kMotherwell FC
2022-12-13€500kSt. Mirren FC
2023-06-26€600kSt. Mirren FC
2023-12-05€700kSt. Mirren FC
2024-05-30€700kSt. Mirren FC
2024-12-03€800kSt. Mirren FC
2025-03-12€700kSt. Mirren FC
2025-06-17€700kSt. Mirren FC
2025-12-10€700kSt. Mirren FC
2026-03-05€600kSt. Mirren FC
2026-05-20€500kSt. Mirren FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.955

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 55% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where O'Hara appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).