FairValue

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Reziuan

Mirzov

LWRussia · Arsenal Tula

№ 232093Emerging €342k +0.27

Player dossierPremier Liga

ReziuanMirzov

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Arsenal Tula
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
32
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Mirzov at €450k. Model A, which never saw Mirzov during training, estimates €342k: the market value is 31% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €411k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.27A €342k▲ +0.09B €411k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
29
Minutes
1,212
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
14/29
Min / app
42
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mirzov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €342k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Reziuan Mirzov's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 22nd, Minutes, two years 25th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 28th42ndGoals22ndAssists25thMinutes32ndStarts7thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.22 this player0.26 attacker median42nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2012
Peak
€2.8M
Jun 2021
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
29
10 club changes
Dec 2025€450kArsenal TulaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Arsenal Tula. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-12€25kSpartak Nalchik
2013-01-22€50kSpartak Kostroma
2014-03-28€100kTorpedo Moskau
2014-06-29€100kTorpedo Moskau
2015-02-23€350kTorpedo Moskau
2015-06-18€500kTorpedo Moskau
2016-01-06€500kTerek Grozny
2016-05-25€300kTerek Grozny
2016-12-27€300kTerek Grozny
2017-06-01€300kTerek Grozny
2017-12-23€400kFC Tosno
2018-06-06€700kFC Tosno
2018-12-20€1.2MArsenal Tula
2019-06-14€2.5MArsenal Tula
2019-12-23€2.5MSpartak Moscow
2020-04-08€2MSpartak Moscow
2020-07-29€1.8MSpartak Moscow
2020-12-29€2MFC Khimki
2021-04-13€2.5MFC Khimki
2021-06-02€2.8MFC Khimki
2021-12-29€2MFC Khimki
2022-06-02€1.5MFC Khimki
2022-11-21€1.2MFC Khimki
2023-06-14€1MFC Khimki
2023-12-27€700kNeftchi PFK
2024-06-12€400kNeftchi PFK
2024-12-12€600kFC Khimki
2025-06-04€500kFC Khimki
2025-12-03€450kArsenal Tula

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.274

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 14% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mirzov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).