FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Evgeniy

Markov

CFRussia · Ural Yekaterinburg

№ 166737Emerging €555k −0.21

Player dossierPremier Liga

EvgeniyMarkov

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Ural Yekaterinburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
31
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Markov at €450k. Model A, which never saw Markov during training, estimates €555k: the market value is 19% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €588k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.21A €555k▼ −0.27B €588k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
1,972
Goals
8
Assists
1
Started
24/32
Min / app
62
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Markov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €555k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Evgeniy Markov's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 70th, Assists per 90 14th, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 28th70thGoals14thAssists44thMinutes76thStarts4thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

75% this player59% attacker median76th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Feb 2011
Peak
€1.5M
Dec 2019
Model target
€450k
Dec 2025
Valuations
27
8 club changes
Dec 2025€450kUral YekaterinburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €450k, Ural Yekaterinburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-02-01€25kZenit St. Petersburg II
2012-08-25€50kZenit St. Petersburg II
2015-06-06€200kEnisey Krasnoyarsk
2016-01-17€200kFC Tosno
2016-07-01€250kFC Tosno
2016-12-27€450kFC Tosno
2017-06-01€400kFC Tosno
2017-12-23€1.2MFC Tosno
2018-06-06€1.2MDinamo Moscow
2018-12-20€1.2MDinamo Moscow
2019-06-14€1.2MDinamo Moscow
2019-12-23€1.5MRubin Kazan
2020-04-08€1.2MRubin Kazan
2020-07-29€1.2MRubin Kazan
2020-12-29€900kFC Krasnodar
2021-06-02€700kFC Krasnodar
2021-12-29€700kArsenal Tula
2022-06-02€600kArsenal Tula
2022-12-08€500kArsenal Tula
2023-06-14€500kFakel Voronezh
2023-10-05€700kFakel Voronezh
2023-12-13€1MFakel Voronezh
2024-06-04€1MFakel Voronezh
2024-09-18€800kFakel Voronezh
2024-12-12€800kFakel Voronezh
2025-06-02€600kUral Yekaterinburg
2025-12-03€450kUral Yekaterinburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.210

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 14% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Markov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).