FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Andreas

Oggesen

RBDenmark · Sönderjyske Fodbold

№ 221916Emerging €329k −0.50

Player dossierSuperliga

AndreasOggesen

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Sönderjyske Fodbold
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
32
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Oggesen at €200k. Model A, which never saw Oggesen during training, estimates €329k: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.64. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €650k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.50A €329k▼ −1.18B €650k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
41
Minutes
3,229
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
36/41
Min / app
79
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Oggesen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €329k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Andreas Oggesen's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 91st, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 63rd, Minutes, last 365 days 48th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals91stAssists57thMinutes63rdStarts48thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.17 this player0.04 defender median91st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2012
Peak
€300k
Jun 2024
Model target
€200k
May 2026
Valuations
29
3 club changes
May 2026€200kSönderjyske FodboldValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €200k, Sönderjyske Fodbold. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-03-28€50kSönderjyskE
2012-07-21€50kSönderjyskE
2013-01-17€150kSönderjyskE
2013-06-18€250kSönderjyskE
2014-08-31€200kSönderjyskE
2015-02-06€200kSönderjyskE
2015-09-02€200kSönderjyskE
2016-01-21€250kSönderjyskE
2016-08-12€200kFC Fredericia
2016-12-12€200kFC Fredericia
2017-06-21€200kFC Fredericia
2017-12-18€200kFC Fredericia
2018-06-07€200kFC Fredericia
2018-12-21€250kFC Fredericia
2019-06-24€250kFC Fredericia
2019-12-22€250kFC Fredericia
2020-07-31€250kFC Fredericia
2020-12-23€200kFC Fredericia
2021-06-04€200kFC Fredericia
2021-12-28€250kSilkeborg IF
2022-06-20€250kSilkeborg IF
2022-12-22€250kSilkeborg IF
2023-06-26€250kSilkeborg IF
2023-12-21€250kSönderjyske Fodbold
2024-06-18€300kSönderjyske Fodbold
2024-12-09€300kSönderjyske Fodbold
2025-06-16€300kSönderjyske Fodbold
2025-12-15€250kSönderjyske Fodbold
2026-05-25€200kSönderjyske Fodbold

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.497

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 7% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 5% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Oggesen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).