FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Thomas

Foket

RBBelgium · RSC Anderlecht

№ 215114Emerging €308k −0.03

Player dossierPro League

ThomasFoket

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
RSC Anderlecht
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
31
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Foket at €300k. Model A, which never saw Foket during training, estimates €308k: the market value is 3% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €919k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €308k▼ −1.12B €919k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
999
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
11/19
Min / app
53
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Foket…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €308k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Thomas Foket's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 99th18thGoals93rdAssists12thMinutes13thStarts1stRecent99thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

48% this player0% defender median99th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2012
Peak
€7M
Dec 2023
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
4 club changes
Jun 2026€300kRSC AnderlechtValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, RSC Anderlecht. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-09-18€150kKAA Gent
2012-11-12€400kKAA Gent
2013-01-09€600kKAA Gent
2013-06-25€600kKAA Gent
2014-02-13€450kKV Oostende (-2024)
2014-06-28€450kKV Oostende (-2024)
2014-10-05€1MKAA Gent
2015-01-07€2MKAA Gent
2015-06-24€2.5MKAA Gent
2016-02-07€3MKAA Gent
2016-07-15€3MKAA Gent
2017-01-21€3.5MKAA Gent
2017-06-06€3.5MKAA Gent
2018-01-09€3.5MKAA Gent
2018-06-03€3.5MKAA Gent
2018-10-24€4.5MStade Reims
2018-12-17€5MStade Reims
2019-03-07€6MStade Reims
2019-06-03€6MStade Reims
2019-12-19€6MStade Reims
2020-04-08€4.8MStade Reims
2020-10-15€5.5MStade Reims
2021-01-07€6MStade Reims
2021-06-04€6MStade Reims
2021-12-16€5MStade Reims
2022-05-30€5MStade Reims
2022-11-02€4.5MStade Reims
2023-06-27€5MStade Reims
2023-10-16€6MStade Reims
2023-12-18€7MStade Reims
2024-06-03€6MStade Reims
2024-12-11€4MRSC Anderlecht
2025-03-26€2.2MRSC Anderlecht
2025-06-12€1.5MRSC Anderlecht
2025-10-01€800kRSC Anderlecht
2025-12-10€600kRSC Anderlecht
2026-03-13€400kRSC Anderlecht
2026-06-04€300kRSC Anderlecht

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.028

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 3% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Foket appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).