FairValue

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Portrait of Mario Pašalić

Mario

Pašalić

CMCroatia · Atalanta BC

№ 205938Established €7.5M −0.22

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

MarioPašalić

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Croatia
Age
31
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pašalić at €6M. Model A, which never saw Pašalić during training, estimates €7.5M: the market value is 20% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €16M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.22A €7.5M▼ −0.98B €16M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
94
Minutes
5,637
Goals
16
Assists
13
Started
64/94
Min / app
60
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pašalić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €6MModel A €7.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mario Pašalić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 92nd, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 89th90thGoals85thAssists92ndMinutes48thStarts87thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,637 this player2,607 midfielder median92nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2013
Peak
€28M
Dec 2021
Model target
€6M
May 2026
Valuations
31
7 club changes
May 2026€6MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €6M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€1MHNK Hajduk Split
2014-03-11€3MHNK Hajduk Split
2014-07-31€3MElche CF
2015-01-23€3MElche CF
2015-07-01€4MChelsea FC
2016-02-04€5MAS Monaco
2016-08-01€4.5MChelsea FC
2017-01-02€5MAC Milan
2017-03-28€6.5MAC Milan
2017-06-08€8MAC Milan
2017-12-23€8MSpartak Moscow
2018-06-06€8MSpartak Moscow
2018-12-20€7MAtalanta BC
2019-06-06€10MAtalanta BC
2019-12-12€14MAtalanta BC
2020-03-03€20MAtalanta BC
2020-04-08€16MAtalanta BC
2020-08-25€25MAtalanta BC
2020-12-29€25MAtalanta BC
2021-05-28€23MAtalanta BC
2021-12-28€28MAtalanta BC
2022-06-07€28MAtalanta BC
2022-11-11€25MAtalanta BC
2023-06-15€20MAtalanta BC
2023-10-11€17MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€13MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€13MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€13MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€10MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€7MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€6MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.223

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 50% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€6MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pašalić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).