FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Jakob

Busk

GKDenmark · FC Nordsjaelland

№ 203411Emerging €119k −0.87

Player dossierSuperliga

JakobBusk

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Nordsjaelland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
32
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Busk at €50k. Model A, which never saw Busk during training, estimates €119k: the market value is 58% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €393k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.87A €119k▼ −2.06B €393k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
1,401
Started
15/16
Min / app
88
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Busk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €50kModel A €119k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Jakob Busk's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd28thMinutes11thStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2012
Peak
€800k
Jan 2017
Model target
€50k
May 2026
Valuations
28
6 club changes
May 2026€50kFC NordsjaellandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €50k, FC Nordsjaelland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-18€100kFC Copenhagen
2013-06-17€250kFC Copenhagen
2013-09-16€350kFC Copenhagen
2014-12-18€350kAC Horsens
2015-12-27€300kSandefjord Fotball
2016-03-22€500k1.FC Union Berlin
2016-07-22€700k1.FC Union Berlin
2017-01-23€800k1.FC Union Berlin
2017-06-27€600k1.FC Union Berlin
2018-01-22€600k1.FC Union Berlin
2018-03-21€500k1.FC Union Berlin
2018-06-19€500k1.FC Union Berlin
2018-10-16€400k1.FC Union Berlin
2019-01-08€400k1.FC Union Berlin
2019-06-12€400k1.FC Union Berlin
2019-12-17€300k1.FC Union Berlin
2021-02-10€300k1.FC Union Berlin
2021-06-09€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2021-12-22€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2022-06-09€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2022-11-09€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2023-06-22€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2023-12-14€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2024-05-29€250k1.FC Union Berlin
2024-12-09€250kSönderjyske Fodbold
2025-06-05€250kTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
2025-12-15€150kFC Nordsjaelland
2026-05-25€50kFC Nordsjaelland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.869

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 2% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 0% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€50kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Busk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).