FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Onurcan

Piri

GKTürkiye · Kayserispor

№ 199470Emerging €293k −0.38

Player dossierSüper Lig

OnurcanPiri

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
31
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Piri at €200k. Model A, which never saw Piri during training, estimates €293k: the market value is 32% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.46. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €497k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.38A €293k▼ −0.91B €497k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
16
Minutes
1,440
Started
16/16
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Piri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €293k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Onurcan Piri's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 32nd28thMinutes62ndStarts21stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2011
Peak
€800k
Oct 2022
Model target
€200k
May 2026
Valuations
32
7 club changes
May 2026€200kKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €200k, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-12-25€25kUnknown
2012-06-17€25kUnknown
2013-06-14€100kGiresunspor
2013-06-21€75kGiresunspor
2014-01-23€100kBursaspor
2014-07-23€100kBursaspor
2015-01-26€100kBursaspor
2015-06-25€100kWithout Club
2016-01-04€100kKayseri Erciyesspor (1966-2018)
2019-10-16€25kBursaspor
2020-02-04€25kGiresunspor
2020-08-27€25kGiresunspor
2020-12-30€200kGiresunspor
2021-03-23€300kGiresunspor
2021-06-02€450kGiresunspor
2021-10-12€200kGiresunspor
2022-01-04€150kGiresunspor
2022-03-31€100kGiresunspor
2022-06-01€100kGiresunspor
2022-10-27€800kGiresunspor
2023-03-14€700kGiresunspor
2023-06-08€450kGiresunspor
2023-09-27€375kKayserispor
2023-12-21€300kKayserispor
2024-03-15€225kKayserispor
2024-05-31€225kKayserispor
2024-10-04€200kKayserispor
2024-12-23€200kKayserispor
2025-03-20€200kKayserispor
2025-06-18€200kKayserispor
2025-12-17€200kKayserispor
2026-05-21€200kKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.381

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 6% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 9% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Piri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).