FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Maximilian

Wittek

LBGermany · VfL Bochum

№ 196793Emerging €2.2M −0.79

Player dossierBundesliga

MaximilianWittek

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
VfL Bochum
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
30
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Wittek at €1M. Model A, which never saw Wittek during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €583k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €2.2M▲ +0.54B €583k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
3,375
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
39/46
Min / app
73
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wittek…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Maximilian Wittek's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 60th, Starts 55th, Minutes, last 365 days 47th, European club minutes 30th80thGoals42ndAssists60thMinutes55thStarts47thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.08 this player0.03 defender median80th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2013
Peak
€2.5M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1M
Dec 2025
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Dec 2025€1MVfL BochumValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1M, VfL Bochum. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-12€50kTSV 1860 München U19
2014-07-28€200kTSV 1860 Munich
2015-01-13€700kTSV 1860 Munich
2015-07-01€700kTSV 1860 Munich
2016-02-11€700kTSV 1860 Munich
2016-07-22€900kTSV 1860 Munich
2017-01-23€900kTSV 1860 Munich
2017-06-27€700kTSV 1860 Munich
2018-01-22€700kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2018-03-21€850kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2018-06-19€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-01-08€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-06-12€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2019-12-13€1MSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-04-08€800kSpVgg Greuther Fürth
2020-10-14€800kVitesse Arnhem
2021-01-06€900kVitesse Arnhem
2021-03-09€1MVitesse Arnhem
2021-05-19€1.2MVitesse Arnhem
2022-01-05€2MVitesse Arnhem
2022-06-08€2.5MVitesse Arnhem
2022-09-14€2MVitesse Arnhem
2022-11-11€2MVitesse Arnhem
2023-06-23€2MVitesse Arnhem
2023-12-14€2MVfL Bochum
2024-05-29€2MVfL Bochum
2024-12-20€2MVfL Bochum
2025-06-05€1.5MVfL Bochum
2025-12-16€1MVfL Bochum

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.791

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wittek appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).