Patrick
Erras
CBGermany · Holstein Kiel
Player dossierBundesliga
PatrickErras
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Holstein Kiel
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 196 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
Reading the valuation
The market values Erras at €300k. Model A, which never saw Erras during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 74% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.89. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €631k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 12
- Minutes
- 968
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 12/12
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Erras…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player83% defender median97th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jul 2014
- Peak
- €3M
- Jun 2019
- Model target
- €300k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 28
- 3 club changes
Dec 2025: €300k, Holstein Kiel. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-07-31 | €50k | 1.FC Nuremberg II |
| 2015-08-07 | €50k | 1.FC Nuremberg II |
| 2016-02-11 | €500k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2016-03-16 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2016-07-22 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2017-01-23 | €1M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2017-06-27 | €900k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-01-22 | €900k | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-06-19 | €1.3M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2018-12-18 | €1.3M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-06-05 | €3M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-09-25 | €2.5M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2019-12-13 | €1.5M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.2M | 1.FC Nuremberg |
| 2021-02-10 | €700k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-06-09 | €700k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2021-10-13 | €600k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2021-12-15 | €500k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2022-06-16 | €500k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2022-11-30 | €700k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2023-06-28 | €700k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2023-12-15 | €700k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2024-03-22 | €850k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2024-06-06 | €1M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2024-12-20 | €1M | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-06-05 | €800k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-10-09 | €600k | Holstein Kiel |
| 2025-12-16 | €300k | Holstein Kiel |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.359
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
The joint lowest observed value among 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Erras appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MüllerGK1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€300k
- SchwabCMHolstein Kiel · Bundesliga€300k
- DrewesGKBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€300k
- SchimmerCF1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€300k
- SmithRBAFC Bournemouth · defenders€300k
- ClyneRBCrystal Palace · defenders€300k
- NauberCBGo Ahead Eagles · defenders€300k
- GómezCBFC Alverca · defenders€300k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).