FairValue

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Portrait of Ben Davies

Ben

Davies

CBWales · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 192765Established €2.2M +0.32

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

BenDavies

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
Wales
Age
33
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Davies at €3M. Model A, which never saw Davies during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 37% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.37. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.32A €2.2M▲ +1.05B €1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,216
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
24/30
Min / app
74
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Davies…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ben Davies's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 44th, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 95th57thGoals17thAssists38thMinutes44thStarts6thRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median95th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2012
Peak
€25M
May 2018
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
1 club change
Jun 2026€3MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-10-17€250kSwansea City
2012-11-15€750kSwansea City
2013-01-28€1.5MSwansea City
2013-07-02€3MSwansea City
2014-01-15€5.5MSwansea City
2014-08-12€10MTottenham Hotspur
2015-02-12€9MTottenham Hotspur
2015-07-01€8MTottenham Hotspur
2016-02-09€8MTottenham Hotspur
2016-06-01€8MTottenham Hotspur
2016-08-01€9MTottenham Hotspur
2017-02-20€9MTottenham Hotspur
2017-06-28€12MTottenham Hotspur
2017-10-23€15MTottenham Hotspur
2018-01-02€18MTottenham Hotspur
2018-05-28€25MTottenham Hotspur
2018-12-19€25MTottenham Hotspur
2019-06-13€25MTottenham Hotspur
2019-12-10€22MTottenham Hotspur
2020-04-08€17.5MTottenham Hotspur
2020-10-13€17.5MTottenham Hotspur
2021-03-18€16MTottenham Hotspur
2021-05-25€16MTottenham Hotspur
2021-12-23€18MTottenham Hotspur
2022-03-29€20MTottenham Hotspur
2022-06-15€20MTottenham Hotspur
2022-11-03€20MTottenham Hotspur
2023-06-20€15MTottenham Hotspur
2023-12-19€15MTottenham Hotspur
2024-03-14€12MTottenham Hotspur
2024-05-27€10MTottenham Hotspur
2024-12-16€8MTottenham Hotspur
2025-05-30€6MTottenham Hotspur
2025-12-09€5MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€3MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.318

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Davies appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).