FairValue

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Portrait of Adam Webster

Adam

Webster

CBEngland · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 212847Established €1.8M +0.52

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AdamWebster

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
31
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Webster at €3M. Model A, which never saw Webster during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 68% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €574k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.52A €1.8M▲ +1.65B €574k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
1,304
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
15/19
Min / app
69
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Webster…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Adam Webster's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 1st, European club minutes 30th74thGoals17thAssists18thMinutes42ndStarts1stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.07 this player0.03 defender median74th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2012
Peak
€25M
Jun 2023
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-02€50kPortsmouth FC
2012-02-07€150kPortsmouth FC
2012-06-22€250kPortsmouth FC
2014-01-20€150kAldershot Town
2016-09-01€750kIpswich Town
2017-02-27€750kIpswich Town
2017-09-18€750kIpswich Town
2018-09-24€4MBristol City
2019-02-27€5MBristol City
2019-06-28€9MBristol City
2019-09-12€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-12-10€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-04-08€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-13€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-06-15€17MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-11-03€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-10-01€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€11MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-10-17€9MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€7MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-03-09€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€3MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.521

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Webster appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).