FairValue

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Hugo

Sousa

CBPortugal · AE Kifisia

№ 187908Emerging €213k −0.35

Player dossierSuper League

HugoSousa

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
AE Kifisia
League
Super League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
34
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sousa at €150k. Model A, which never saw Sousa during training, estimates €213k: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €297k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.35A €213k▼ −0.68B €297k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
2,218
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
25/25
Min / app
89
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sousa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €213k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Hugo Sousa's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 38th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 30th57thGoals17thAssists38thMinutes97thStarts68thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Nov 2011
Peak
€1M
Jan 2015
Model target
€150k
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
7 club changes
Jun 2026€150kAE KifisiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €150k, AE Kifisia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-11-10€150kFC Brasov
2011-12-24€150kFC Brasov
2014-02-20€700kSporting CP B
2015-01-11€1MKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2015-06-24€800kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2016-02-07€700kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2016-07-15€500kKVRS Waasland - SK Beveren
2017-04-20€350kAris Thessaloniki
2018-04-26€450kAris Thessaloniki
2018-12-07€450kAris Thessaloniki
2019-05-21€450kAris Thessaloniki
2019-12-18€350kAris Thessaloniki
2020-04-08€300kAris Thessaloniki
2020-08-04€300kAris Thessaloniki
2020-12-18€250kAstra Giurgiu (- 2024)
2021-03-21€400kAstra Giurgiu (- 2024)
2021-06-03€400kAstra Giurgiu (- 2024)
2021-12-22€350kSepsi OSK Sf. Gheorghe
2022-06-03€250kSepsi OSK Sf. Gheorghe
2022-11-07€250kIonikos Nikea
2023-05-22€250kIonikos Nikea
2023-12-28€250kIonikos Nikea
2024-05-23€250kIonikos Nikea
2024-12-27€200kAE Kifisia
2025-05-16€200kAE Kifisia
2025-12-12€175kAE Kifisia
2026-06-04€150kAE Kifisia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.351

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 6% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sousa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).