FairValue

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Federico

Macheda

CFItaly · Asteras Aktor

№ 61887Emerging €140k +0.07

Player dossierSuper League

FedericoMacheda

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Asteras Aktor
League
Super League
Nationality
Italy
Age
34
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Macheda at €150k. Model A, which never saw Macheda during training, estimates €140k: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €156k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €140k▼ −0.04B €156k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
3,490
Goals
9
Assists
4
Started
40/49
Min / app
71
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Macheda…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €140k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Federico Macheda's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 33rd, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 28th44thGoals33rdAssists73rdMinutes85thStarts61stRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

82% this player59% attacker median85th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Apr 2009
Peak
€3.5M
Feb 2011
Model target
€150k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
11 club changes
Jun 2026€150kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €150k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-04-16€500kManchester United
2009-06-29€1.5MManchester United
2011-02-08€3.5MUC Sampdoria
2011-06-21€2.8MUC Sampdoria
2012-02-06€3MQueens Park Rangers
2012-06-24€2.5MManchester United
2013-06-30€2.5MManchester United
2014-01-15€1.5MManchester United
2015-02-24€1MCardiff City
2015-09-24€1MCardiff City
2016-04-20€750kNottingham Forest
2016-12-19€500kNovara Calcio 1908
2017-06-09€800kNovara Calcio 1908
2017-12-21€700kNovara Calcio 1908
2018-06-18€450kNovara Calcio 1908
2018-12-07€600kPanathinaikos
2019-05-21€800kPanathinaikos
2019-09-23€1MPanathinaikos
2019-12-18€1MPanathinaikos
2020-04-08€800kPanathinaikos
2020-08-04€1.5MPanathinaikos
2021-02-12€1.5MPanathinaikos
2021-11-01€1.5MPanathinaikos
2022-06-09€1.2MPanathinaikos
2022-10-27€1MMKE Ankaragücü
2023-05-31€700kAPOEL Nicosia
2023-09-27€450kMKE Ankaragücü
2023-12-21€350kMKE Ankaragücü
2024-03-15€350kMKE Ankaragücü
2024-05-31€275kMKE Ankaragücü
2024-12-18€250kAsteras Aktor
2025-05-23€200kAsteras Aktor
2025-12-12€175kAsteras Aktor
2026-06-04€150kAsteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.067

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 6% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 2% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Macheda appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).