FairValue

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Portrait of Emil Krafth

Emil

Krafth

RBSweden · Newcastle United

№ 184528Emerging €1.3M −0.58

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

EmilKrafth

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
31
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Krafth at €750k. Model A, which never saw Krafth during training, estimates €1.3M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €400k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.58A €1.3M▲ +0.63B €400k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
692
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/17
Min / app
41
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Krafth…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €750k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €750kModel A €1.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Emil Krafth's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 5th, Starts 3rd, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists5thMinutes3rdStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€225k
Jul 2011
Peak
€5M
Sept 2019
Model target
€750k
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
Jun 2026€750kNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €750k, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-11€225kÖsters IF
2012-09-30€250kHelsingborgs IF
2013-08-07€600kHelsingborgs IF
2014-06-30€700kHelsingborgs IF
2015-04-11€850kHelsingborgs IF
2015-06-14€900kHelsingborgs IF
2016-01-04€800kBologna FC 1909
2016-07-15€700kBologna FC 1909
2016-10-14€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2017-01-02€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2017-06-08€1.8MBologna FC 1909
2017-12-29€1.7MBologna FC 1909
2018-06-07€1.5MBologna FC 1909
2018-10-24€2MAmiens SC
2018-12-17€2MAmiens SC
2019-06-03€2.5MAmiens SC
2019-09-12€5MNewcastle United
2019-12-10€5MNewcastle United
2020-04-08€4MNewcastle United
2020-10-13€4MNewcastle United
2021-03-18€4MNewcastle United
2021-05-31€3.5MNewcastle United
2021-12-23€3MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€5MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€4MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€3MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€2.5MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€2.5MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€2.5MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€2MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€1.5MNewcastle United
2026-03-09€1MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€750kNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.582

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 5% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 28% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€750kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Krafth appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).