FairValue

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Jamaal

Lascelles

CBEngland · Newcastle United

№ 183318Established €2.1M −0.05

Player dossierPremier League

JamaalLascelles

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
32
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
9 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Lascelles at €2M. Model A, which never saw Lascelles during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €727k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €2.1M▲ +1.01B €727k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
579
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/12
Min / app
48
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lascelles…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jamaal Lascelles's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 78th18thGoals17thAssists3rdMinutes14thStarts2ndRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

16% this player0% defender median78th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2011
Peak
€18M
Sept 2019
Model target
€2M
Dec 2025
Valuations
32
1 club change
Dec 2025€2MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €2M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-08-15€50kNottingham Forest
2012-02-07€500kNottingham Forest
2013-03-02€500kNottingham Forest
2013-07-12€500kNottingham Forest
2014-01-08€600kNottingham Forest
2014-08-19€3MNottingham Forest
2015-02-24€3MNottingham Forest
2015-07-01€4MNewcastle United
2016-02-09€3MNewcastle United
2016-09-01€4MNewcastle United
2017-02-27€4.5MNewcastle United
2017-06-28€5MNewcastle United
2018-01-02€7MNewcastle United
2018-05-28€15MNewcastle United
2018-12-19€15MNewcastle United
2019-06-13€15MNewcastle United
2019-09-12€18MNewcastle United
2019-12-10€18MNewcastle United
2020-04-08€14.5MNewcastle United
2020-10-13€14.5MNewcastle United
2021-03-18€13MNewcastle United
2021-06-08€13MNewcastle United
2021-12-23€11MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€10MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€7MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€4.5MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€7MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€7MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€6MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€4MNewcastle United
2025-10-17€3.5MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€2MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.049

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 9% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lascelles appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).