FairValue

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Portrait of Paulo Dybala

Paulo

Dybala

SSArgentina · AS Roma

№ 206050Established €6.7M −0.30

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

PauloDybala

SSSecond StrikerAttack

Club
AS Roma
League
Serie A
Nationality
Argentina
Age
32
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dybala at €5M. Model A, which never saw Dybala during training, estimates €6.7M: the market value is 26% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.30A €6.7M▲ +0.22B €4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
3,715
Goals
11
Assists
12
Started
43/63
Min / app
59
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dybala…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €6.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Paulo Dybala's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 86th51stGoals89thAssists77thMinutes65thStarts60thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.29 this player0.15 attacker median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€2M
Dec 2011
Peak
€110M
Jun 2018
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
43
3 club changes
May 2026€5MAS RomaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, AS Roma. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-12-23€2MInstituto ACC
2012-07-29€7MUS Palermo
2013-01-14€8MUS Palermo
2013-06-19€7.5MUS Palermo
2014-01-29€5MUS Palermo
2014-07-15€5MUS Palermo
2014-11-08€6.5MUS Palermo
2015-01-07€15MUS Palermo
2015-03-20€23MUS Palermo
2015-07-01€28MJuventus FC
2016-01-04€36MJuventus FC
2016-04-01€40MJuventus FC
2016-07-15€45MJuventus FC
2017-01-02€45MJuventus FC
2017-03-28€50MJuventus FC
2017-06-08€65MJuventus FC
2017-10-13€70MJuventus FC
2017-12-29€85MJuventus FC
2018-03-24€100MJuventus FC
2018-06-07€110MJuventus FC
2018-12-20€110MJuventus FC
2019-03-01€100MJuventus FC
2019-06-06€85MJuventus FC
2019-10-08€75MJuventus FC
2019-12-12€85MJuventus FC
2020-03-03€90MJuventus FC
2020-04-08€72MJuventus FC
2020-08-25€80MJuventus FC
2020-12-29€70MJuventus FC
2021-03-23€60MJuventus FC
2021-06-03€50MJuventus FC
2021-12-28€50MJuventus FC
2022-03-15€40MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€35MJuventus FC
2022-11-11€30MAS Roma
2023-06-15€30MAS Roma
2023-12-20€25MAS Roma
2024-06-05€20MAS Roma
2024-10-18€12MAS Roma
2024-12-18€8MAS Roma
2025-06-17€8MAS Roma
2025-12-23€5MAS Roma
2026-05-29€5MAS Roma

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.298

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 45% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dybala appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).