FairValue

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Tonny

Vilhena

CMNetherlands · Panathinaikos

№ 182581Emerging €1.4M −1.01

Player dossierSuper League

TonnyVilhena

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Panathinaikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
31
Height
175 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vilhena at €500k. Model A, which never saw Vilhena during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.74. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €577k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.01A €1.4M▼ −0.14B €577k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,225
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
13/20
Min / app
61
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vilhena…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tonny Vilhena's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 71st, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 18th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 4th, European club minutes 71st71stGoals41stAssists18thMinutes42ndStarts4thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.08 midfielder median71st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2012
Peak
€14M
Jun 2019
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
7 club changes
Jun 2026€500kPanathinaikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Panathinaikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-01-23€50kFeyenoord/Excelsior U19
2012-06-30€350kFeyenoord/Excelsior U19
2013-01-09€1.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2013-05-28€3.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2014-02-11€3.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2014-08-11€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2015-02-16€5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2015-07-01€4MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2016-02-05€4.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2016-07-15€5.5MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2017-01-18€7MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2017-06-07€9MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-01-17€9MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-06-12€12MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2018-12-28€12MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-06-12€14MFeyenoord Rotterdam
2019-12-23€14MFC Krasnodar
2020-04-08€11MFC Krasnodar
2020-07-29€11MFC Krasnodar
2020-12-29€10MFC Krasnodar
2021-04-13€9MFC Krasnodar
2021-06-02€8MFC Krasnodar
2021-12-29€7.5MFC Krasnodar
2022-06-03€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2022-09-27€4MUS Salernitana 1919
2022-11-11€3.8MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-03-21€3.4MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-06-15€3.8MUS Salernitana 1919
2023-12-20€3.5MPanathinaikos
2024-05-30€3MPanathinaikos
2024-09-26€2.5MPanathinaikos
2024-12-18€2MPanathinaikos
2025-03-20€1.5MAlanyaspor
2025-06-18€1.3MAlanyaspor
2025-09-23€1MPanathinaikos
2025-12-12€800kPanathinaikos
2026-03-06€700kPanathinaikos
2026-06-04€500kPanathinaikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.008

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vilhena appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).