FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Paul

Izzo

GKAustralia · Randers FC

№ 181921Emerging €500k 0.00

Player dossierSuperliga

PaulIzzo

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Randers FC
League
Superliga
Nationality
Australia
Age
31
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Izzo at €500k. Model A, which never saw Izzo during training, estimates €500k: the market value is level with that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €504k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ 0.00A €500k▼ −0.01B €504k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
3,510
Started
39/39
Min / app
90
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Izzo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €500k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Paul Izzo's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 49th, European club minutes 32nd63rdMinutes62ndStarts49thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,510 this player2,790 goalkeeper median63rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2011
Peak
€600k
Jun 2025
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
20
5 club changes
May 2026€500kRanders FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Randers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-12-23€50kAdelaide United
2013-01-12€100kAdelaide United
2013-07-11€250kAdelaide United
2015-08-26€300kCentral Coast Mariners
2017-07-30€300kAdelaide United
2018-07-24€400kAdelaide United
2019-03-02€400kAdelaide United
2019-09-11€500kAdelaide United
2020-04-08€400kAdelaide United
2021-03-08€350kXanthi FC
2021-05-21€400kXanthi FC
2021-12-28€400kXanthi FC
2022-06-27€300kXanthi FC
2023-04-05€300kMelbourne Victory
2024-01-08€300kMelbourne Victory
2024-05-28€350kMelbourne Victory
2024-12-09€500kRanders FC
2025-06-16€600kRanders FC
2025-12-15€600kRanders FC
2026-05-25€500kRanders FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.001

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 25% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Izzo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).