FairValue

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Hernani

CMBrazil · Parma Calcio 1913

№ 181768Emerging €1.6M −0.05

Player dossierSerie A

Hernani

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Parma Calcio 1913
League
Serie A
Nationality
Brazil
Age
31
Height
188 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
23 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Hernani at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Hernani during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €1.6M▲ +0.35B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
1,402
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
15/30
Min / app
47
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hernani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Hernani's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 82nd, Minutes, two years 23rd, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals82ndAssists23rdMinutes21stStarts25thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.09 midfielder median82nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Feb 2015
Peak
€6.5M
Dec 2020
Model target
€1.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
26
7 club changes
Dec 2025€1.5MParma Calcio 1913Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.5M, Parma Calcio 1913. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-02-01€1MAtlético Paranaense
2015-05-31€1MAtlético Paranaense
2015-12-15€1.8MAtlético Paranaense
2016-05-27€1.8MAtlético Paranaense
2017-01-30€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2017-06-01€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2018-01-24€5MAS Saint-Étienne
2018-06-04€4MAS Saint-Étienne
2018-12-20€4MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-06-14€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-12-12€4MParma Calcio 1913
2020-04-08€3.2MParma Calcio 1913
2020-08-25€5.5MParma Calcio 1913
2020-12-29€6.5MParma Calcio 1913
2021-06-03€6.5MParma Calcio 1913
2021-10-14€5MGenoa CFC
2021-12-28€4MGenoa CFC
2022-06-07€3MGenoa CFC
2022-09-27€2MReggina 1914
2022-12-22€2MReggina 1914
2023-06-12€2MReggina 1914
2023-12-27€1.7MParma Calcio 1913
2024-06-03€2MParma Calcio 1913
2024-12-18€2MParma Calcio 1913
2025-06-17€1.6MParma Calcio 1913
2025-12-23€1.5MParma Calcio 1913

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.050

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hernani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).