FairValue

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Vyacheslav

Karavaev

RBRussia · Zenit St. Petersburg

№ 170620Established €1.4M +0.38

Player dossierPremier Liga

VyacheslavKaravaev

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Zenit St. Petersburg
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
31
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Karavaev at €2M. Model A, which never saw Karavaev during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 47% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €551k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.38A €1.4M▲ +1.29B €551k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
1,432
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
16/22
Min / app
65
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karavaev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €1.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Vyacheslav Karavaev's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 21st, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 6th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals83rdAssists21stMinutes31stStarts6thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.13 this player0.04 defender median83rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Mar 2012
Peak
€7M
Dec 2019
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
33
7 club changes
May 2026€2MZenit St. PetersburgValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Zenit St. Petersburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-03-15€25kCSKA Moscow II
2013-08-19€75kCSKA Moscow
2014-03-28€100kCSKA Moscow
2014-09-03€300kFK Dukla Prague
2015-07-24€500kFK Jablonec
2015-10-14€600kFK Jablonec
2016-07-01€1MCSKA Moscow
2016-10-16€1.5MAC Sparta Prague
2016-12-19€2MAC Sparta Prague
2017-04-15€2.3MAC Sparta Prague
2017-06-10€3MAC Sparta Prague
2017-12-21€2.8MAC Sparta Prague
2018-03-27€1.5MVitesse Arnhem
2018-06-12€1.5MVitesse Arnhem
2018-12-28€2MVitesse Arnhem
2019-06-12€3MVitesse Arnhem
2019-09-10€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2019-12-23€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-04-08€5.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-07-29€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2020-12-29€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-05-26€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-29€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-06-02€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-11-21€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-06-14€6MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-12-13€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-06-04€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2024-12-12€5MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-03-19€4.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-06-04€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2025-12-16€2.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2026-05-26€2MZenit St. Petersburg

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.384

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 65% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Karavaev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).