FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Arseniy

Dmitriev

RWRussia · Akron Tolyatti

№ 1160366Emerging €630k −0.23

Player dossierPremier Liga

ArseniyDmitriev

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Akron Tolyatti
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
18
Height
172 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dmitriev at €500k. Model A, which never saw Dmitriev during training, estimates €630k: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €630k▼ −0.85B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
726
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
8/20
Min / app
36
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dmitriev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €630k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Arseniy Dmitriev's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 28th18thGoals6thAssists9thMinutes21stStarts12thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2024
Peak
€500k
May 2026
Model target
€500k
May 2026
Valuations
6
1 club change
May 2026€500kAkron TolyattiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €500k, Akron Tolyatti. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-08-05€200kAkron-2 Togliatti
2024-12-12€200kAkron-2 Togliatti
2025-06-04€200kAkron-2 Togliatti
2025-09-18€400kAkron Tolyatti
2025-12-16€400kAkron Tolyatti
2026-05-26€500kAkron Tolyatti

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 15% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dmitriev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).