MosesOdubajo

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: AEK Athens
League: Super League
Nationality: England
Age: 32
Height: 177 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 12 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Odubajo at €500k. Model A, which never saw Odubajo during training, estimates €817k: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €322k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 34
Minutes: 2,399
Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Started: 25/34
Min / app: 71
Cards: 13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Odubajo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.04 this player0.03 defender median54th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Nov 2011
Peak: €5M; Aug 2016
Model target: €500k; Dec 2025
Valuations: 27; 7 club changes

Dec 2025€500kAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2011-11-01	€50k	Leyton Orient
2013-10-08	€250k	Leyton Orient
2014-03-10	€500k	Leyton Orient
2014-06-28	€1M	Leyton Orient
2015-02-24	€1.5M	Brentford FC
2015-09-24	€4M	Hull City
2016-04-20	€4.5M	Hull City
2016-08-01	€5M	Hull City
2017-02-20	€5M	Hull City
2017-06-28	€5M	Hull City
2018-02-27	€2.5M	Hull City
2018-09-24	€1M	Brentford FC
2019-06-28	€1M	Brentford FC
2020-02-27	€1M	Sheffield Wednesday
2020-04-08	€800k	Sheffield Wednesday
2020-10-15	€800k	Sheffield Wednesday
2021-03-10	€700k	Sheffield Wednesday
2021-06-30	€700k	Sheffield Wednesday
2021-11-24	€700k	Queens Park Rangers
2022-05-13	€700k	Queens Park Rangers
2022-11-07	€700k	Aris Thessaloniki
2023-05-22	€700k	Aris Thessaloniki
2023-12-20	€700k	Aris Thessaloniki
2024-05-30	€700k	Aris Thessaloniki
2024-12-18	€700k	AEK Athens
2025-05-23	€600k	AEK Athens
2025-12-12	€500k	AEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.492

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 43% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Odubajo appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).