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Portrait of Daniele Rugani

Daniele

Rugani

CBItaly · ACF Fiorentina

№ 162959Established €2.1M −0.07

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

DanieleRugani

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
ACF Fiorentina
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
31
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rugani at €2M. Model A, which never saw Rugani during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 7% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.07A €2.1M▼ −0.31B €2.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
41
Minutes
2,106
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
24/41
Min / app
51
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rugani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Daniele Rugani's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 59th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 36th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 96th59thGoals17thAssists36thMinutes14thStarts21stRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% defender median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2011
Peak
€22M
Jun 2018
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
34
9 club changes
May 2026€2MACF FiorentinaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, ACF Fiorentina. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-11-01€100kEmpoli Primavera
2012-03-03€200kEmpoli Primavera
2013-06-06€200kJuventus Primavera
2014-01-29€1.5MFC Empoli
2014-07-15€3MFC Empoli
2014-11-08€5MFC Empoli
2015-01-07€7.5MFC Empoli
2015-07-01€10MJuventus FC
2016-01-04€10MJuventus FC
2016-07-15€13MJuventus FC
2017-01-02€17MJuventus FC
2017-06-08€17MJuventus FC
2017-12-29€20MJuventus FC
2018-06-07€22MJuventus FC
2018-12-20€22MJuventus FC
2019-06-06€22MJuventus FC
2019-12-12€19MJuventus FC
2020-03-03€15MJuventus FC
2020-04-08€12MJuventus FC
2020-08-25€12MJuventus FC
2020-10-15€12MStade Rennais FC
2021-01-07€10MStade Rennais FC
2021-06-03€5MCagliari Calcio
2021-12-28€3.5MJuventus FC
2022-06-07€3.5MJuventus FC
2022-11-11€2.5MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€2MJuventus FC
2023-12-20€4MJuventus FC
2024-06-05€4MJuventus FC
2024-12-17€3.5MAjax Amsterdam
2025-05-28€3MAjax Amsterdam
2025-10-07€2MJuventus FC
2025-12-23€2MJuventus FC
2026-05-29€2MACF Fiorentina

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.069

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 20% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rugani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).