FairValue

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Portrait of Filip Kostić

Filip

Kostić

LMSerbia · Juventus FC

№ 161011Established €2.6M −0.26

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

FilipKostić

LMLeft MidfieldMidfield

Club
Juventus FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Serbia
Age
33
Height
184 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kostić at €2M. Model A, which never saw Kostić during training, estimates €2.6M: the market value is 23% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.29. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €948k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.26A €2.6M▲ +0.75B €948k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
3,001
Goals
4
Assists
10
Started
31/56
Min / app
54
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kostić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Filip Kostić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 96th, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 28th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 83rd62ndGoals96thAssists57thMinutes28thStarts21stRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.30 this player0.09 midfielder median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jun 2011
Peak
€40M
Mar 2020
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
43
7 club changes
May 2026€2MJuventus FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, Juventus FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-06-27€200kFK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
2011-09-29€600kFK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
2011-12-09€750kFK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
2012-05-02€1.3MFK Radnicki 1923 Kragujevac
2013-01-13€1MFC Groningen
2013-06-12€1MFC Groningen
2014-02-11€2.5MFC Groningen
2014-08-11€6MVfB Stuttgart
2015-02-04€5.5MVfB Stuttgart
2015-07-01€6MVfB Stuttgart
2015-10-16€8MVfB Stuttgart
2016-02-15€8MVfB Stuttgart
2016-04-13€10MVfB Stuttgart
2016-07-22€10MVfB Stuttgart
2017-02-07€10MHamburger SV
2017-06-19€8MHamburger SV
2017-12-28€8MHamburger SV
2018-06-05€6MHamburger SV
2018-12-18€10MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-03-06€15MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-06-05€22MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-10-02€38MEintracht Frankfurt
2019-12-17€38MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-03-11€40MEintracht Frankfurt
2020-04-08€32MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-02-10€32MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-06-09€35MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-10-07€20MEintracht Frankfurt
2021-12-22€20MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-06-09€24MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-11-11€24MJuventus FC
2023-06-15€22MJuventus FC
2023-10-11€15MJuventus FC
2023-12-20€12MJuventus FC
2024-03-12€9MJuventus FC
2024-06-05€6.5MJuventus FC
2024-10-04€6.5MFenerbahce
2024-12-23€6MFenerbahce
2025-03-20€5.5MFenerbahce
2025-06-18€5MJuventus FC
2025-10-07€3.5MJuventus FC
2025-12-23€3.5MJuventus FC
2026-05-29€2MJuventus FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.256

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 20% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kostić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).