Kevin
Akpoguma
CBNigeria · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Player dossierBundesliga
KevinAkpoguma
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Nigeria
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Akpoguma at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Akpoguma during training, estimates €5.8M: the market value is 74% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.84. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 51
- Minutes
- 3,136
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 33/51
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Akpoguma…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
18% this player0% defender median81st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2012
- Peak
- €12M
- Aug 2018
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 5 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-07-11 | €100k | Karlsruher SC |
| 2012-12-30 | €200k | Karlsruher SC |
| 2013-02-23 | €400k | Karlsruher SC |
| 2013-06-28 | €450k | Karlsruher SC |
| 2013-08-27 | €800k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2014-04-01 | €600k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2014-07-10 | €600k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2015-02-04 | €600k | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2015-07-01 | €400k | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2016-02-11 | €400k | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2016-07-22 | €600k | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2016-10-06 | €1M | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2017-01-23 | €1.3M | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2017-06-27 | €1.3M | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
| 2017-12-28 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-04-04 | €5.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-06-05 | €8M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-08-22 | €12M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-12-18 | €10M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-06-05 | €6.5M | Hannover 96 |
| 2019-10-02 | €4M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-12-17 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-04-08 | €4.8M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-11-26 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-02-10 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-06-09 | €5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-12-22 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-06-09 | €6M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-11-09 | €5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2023-03-29 | €4M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2023-06-22 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2023-12-14 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2024-05-29 | €3M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2024-12-20 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2025-06-05 | €2.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2025-12-19 | €2M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2026-05-27 | €1.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.345
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 12% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Akpoguma appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HofmannAMBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€1.5M
- KüblerRBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€1.5M
- GregoritschCFFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€1.5M
- MweneLB1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€1.5M
- TraunerCBFeyenoord Rotterdam · defenders€1.5M
- WalkerRBBurnley FC · defenders€1.5M
- TrippierRBNewcastle United · defenders€1.5M
- MeunierRBLOSC Lille · defenders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).