FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Santi

Cazorla

CMSpain · Real Oviedo

№ 15799Emerging €173k +0.15

Player dossierLaLiga

SantiCazorla

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Real Oviedo
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
41
Height
168 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cazorla at €200k. Model A, which never saw Cazorla during training, estimates €173k: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €191k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €173k▲ +0.05B €191k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
924
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
6/28
Min / app
33
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cazorla…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €200k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €200kModel A €173k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Santi Cazorla's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 11th, Starts 2nd, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals51stAssists11thMinutes2ndStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.09 midfielder median51st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Oct 2004
Peak
€30M
Jul 2013
Model target
€200k
Jun 2026
Valuations
43
7 club changes
Jun 2026€200kReal OviedoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €200k, Real Oviedo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2004-10-18€400kVillarreal CF
2007-02-08€3.5MRecreativo Huelva
2008-02-04€4.6MVillarreal CF
2008-04-04€6MVillarreal CF
2008-07-09€8MVillarreal CF
2008-10-15€12MVillarreal CF
2009-01-25€15MVillarreal CF
2009-07-22€18MVillarreal CF
2009-12-03€18MVillarreal CF
2010-04-12€15MVillarreal CF
2010-08-27€15MVillarreal CF
2011-02-04€18MVillarreal CF
2011-07-29€20MMálaga CF
2012-02-03€20MMálaga CF
2013-01-28€25MArsenal FC
2013-07-02€30MArsenal FC
2014-01-15€30MArsenal FC
2014-08-12€26MArsenal FC
2015-02-12€26MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€26MArsenal FC
2016-02-09€24MArsenal FC
2016-08-01€20MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€18MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€12MArsenal FC
2018-01-02€5MArsenal FC
2018-05-28€2.5MArsenal FC
2018-12-21€2.5MVillarreal CF
2019-06-11€4MVillarreal CF
2019-12-20€4MVillarreal CF
2020-04-08€3.2MVillarreal CF
2020-07-20€2.5MVillarreal CF
2020-12-31€2.3MAl-Sadd SC
2021-08-13€2MAl-Sadd SC
2022-01-10€1MAl-Sadd SC
2022-05-25€1MAl-Sadd SC
2022-11-10€700kAl-Sadd SC
2023-05-30€500kAl-Sadd SC
2023-12-20€300kReal Oviedo
2024-06-24€300kReal Oviedo
2024-12-13€300kReal Oviedo
2025-06-24€200kReal Oviedo
2025-12-12€200kReal Oviedo
2026-06-05€200kReal Oviedo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.146

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 1% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€200kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cazorla appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).