FairValue

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Adrián San

Miguel

GKSpain · Real Betis Balompié

№ 71271Emerging €236k +0.24

Player dossierLaLiga

Adrián SanMiguel

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Real Betis Balompié
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
39
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Miguel at €300k. Model A, which never saw Miguel during training, estimates €236k: the market value is 27% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.27. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €154k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.24A €236k▲ +0.67B €154k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
25
Minutes
2,250
Started
25/25
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Miguel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €236k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Adrián San Miguel's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 32nd42ndMinutes62ndStarts21stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2012
Peak
€9M
Aug 2016
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
3 club changes
Jun 2026€300kReal Betis BalompiéValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Real Betis Balompié. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-19€100kReal Betis Balompié
2012-11-14€500kReal Betis Balompié
2013-01-11€1.5MReal Betis Balompié
2013-06-13€2MReal Betis Balompié
2014-01-15€2MWest Ham United
2014-08-12€3MWest Ham United
2015-02-12€5MWest Ham United
2015-07-01€6MWest Ham United
2016-02-09€7MWest Ham United
2016-08-01€9MWest Ham United
2017-02-20€8MWest Ham United
2017-06-28€8MWest Ham United
2017-10-23€5MWest Ham United
2018-01-02€5MWest Ham United
2018-05-28€5MWest Ham United
2018-12-19€4MWest Ham United
2019-06-13€3.5MWest Ham United
2019-09-12€5MLiverpool FC
2019-12-10€5MLiverpool FC
2020-04-08€4MLiverpool FC
2020-10-13€4MLiverpool FC
2020-12-17€2MLiverpool FC
2021-03-18€1.5MLiverpool FC
2021-06-08€1MLiverpool FC
2021-12-23€1MLiverpool FC
2022-06-15€1MLiverpool FC
2022-11-03€1MLiverpool FC
2023-06-20€800kLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€600kLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€600kLiverpool FC
2024-12-27€500kReal Betis Balompié
2025-06-09€500kReal Betis Balompié
2025-12-12€400kReal Betis Balompié
2026-06-05€300kReal Betis Balompié

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.240

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 1% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 15% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Miguel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).