FairValue

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Christian

Nørgaard

DMDenmark · Arsenal FC

№ 148367Established €8.2M −0.49

Player dossierPremier League

ChristianNørgaard

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Denmark
Age
32
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nørgaard at €5M. Model A, which never saw Nørgaard during training, estimates €8.2M: the market value is 39% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.64. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.49A €8.2M▲ +0.47B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
3,870
Goals
5
Assists
7
Started
45/54
Min / app
72
Cards
11Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nørgaard…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €8.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Christian Nørgaard's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 76th, Minutes, last 365 days 33rd, European club minutes 69th61stGoals75thAssists72ndMinutes76thStarts33rdRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

83% this player69% midfielder median76th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Feb 2012
Peak
€20M
Dec 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
38
5 club changes
Jun 2026€5MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-03€250kHamburger SV II
2012-07-31€250kHamburger SV
2012-09-02€400kHamburger SV
2013-01-13€400kHamburger SV
2013-06-30€400kHamburger SV
2014-02-10€500kBröndby IF
2014-08-31€500kBröndby IF
2015-02-06€500kBröndby IF
2015-09-02€700kBröndby IF
2016-01-21€600kBröndby IF
2016-08-12€700kBröndby IF
2016-12-12€1MBröndby IF
2017-03-27€1.5MBröndby IF
2017-06-21€1.5MBröndby IF
2017-12-18€2MBröndby IF
2018-06-02€2MBröndby IF
2018-12-20€2MACF Fiorentina
2019-06-06€2MACF Fiorentina
2019-10-17€3MBrentford FC
2020-02-27€4MBrentford FC
2020-04-08€3.2MBrentford FC
2020-10-15€4MBrentford FC
2021-03-10€3.5MBrentford FC
2021-05-26€3.5MBrentford FC
2021-10-05€6MBrentford FC
2021-12-23€8MBrentford FC
2022-03-29€10MBrentford FC
2022-06-15€14MBrentford FC
2022-11-03€14MBrentford FC
2023-06-20€16MBrentford FC
2023-12-19€20MBrentford FC
2024-05-27€18MBrentford FC
2024-12-16€15MBrentford FC
2025-03-18€12MBrentford FC
2025-05-30€11MBrentford FC
2025-12-09€9MArsenal FC
2026-03-09€7MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€5MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.493

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nørgaard appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).