FairValue

Checking model

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Conor

Townsend

LBEngland · Ipswich Town

№ 146509Emerging €766k −0.43

Player dossierPremier League

ConorTownsend

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
32
Height
183 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Townsend at €500k. Model A, which never saw Townsend during training, estimates €766k: the market value is 35% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.53. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €259k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.43A €766k▲ +0.66B €259k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
10
Minutes
725
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
7/10
Min / app
73
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Townsend…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €766k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Conor Townsend's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 6th, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 16th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals98thAssists6thMinutes27thStarts16thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.25 this player0.04 defender median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2014
Peak
€2.5M
Nov 2021
Model target
€500k
Dec 2025
Valuations
22
4 club changes
Dec 2025€500kIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-10-09€100kDundee United FC
2015-01-10€200kDundee United FC
2015-09-24€200kHull City
2016-05-30€200kScunthorpe United
2018-09-24€750kWest Bromwich Albion
2019-06-28€750kWest Bromwich Albion
2020-02-27€1MWest Bromwich Albion
2020-04-08€800kWest Bromwich Albion
2020-10-13€800kWest Bromwich Albion
2021-03-18€1.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2021-06-08€2MWest Bromwich Albion
2021-11-24€2.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2022-05-13€2.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2022-10-27€2.2MWest Bromwich Albion
2023-06-01€2MWest Bromwich Albion
2023-12-21€2MWest Bromwich Albion
2024-03-07€1.8MWest Bromwich Albion
2024-05-24€1.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2024-12-16€1.2MIpswich Town
2025-05-30€800kIpswich Town
2025-10-06€600kIpswich Town
2025-12-03€500kIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.427

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 3% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 19% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Townsend appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).