FairValue

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Paulo

Oliveira

CBPortugal · SC Braga

№ 139336Emerging €988k −0.90

Player dossierLiga Portugal

PauloOliveira

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SC Braga
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
34
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Oliveira at €400k. Model A, which never saw Oliveira during training, estimates €988k: the market value is 60% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.47. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.90A €988k▼ −1.07B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
3,677
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
40/55
Min / app
67
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Oliveira…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €988k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Paulo Oliveira's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 31st, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 93rd44thGoals17thAssists64thMinutes31stStarts43rdRecent93rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

27% this player0% defender median93rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Oct 2010
Peak
€8.5M
Feb 2016
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
33
5 club changes
May 2026€400kSC BragaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-10-01€100kVitória Guimarães SC U19
2012-01-09€400kFC Penafiel
2012-06-25€700kFC Penafiel
2013-07-02€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2014-02-26€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2014-07-25€3.7MSporting CP
2015-02-17€5MSporting CP
2015-07-01€7.5MSporting CP
2016-02-24€8.5MSporting CP
2016-07-29€5MSporting CP
2017-02-22€4MSporting CP
2017-06-26€4MSporting CP
2018-01-01€3MSD Eibar
2018-05-30€3MSD Eibar
2018-12-21€6MSD Eibar
2019-06-11€6MSD Eibar
2019-12-20€6MSD Eibar
2020-04-08€4.8MSD Eibar
2020-10-08€5MSD Eibar
2021-01-05€4MSD Eibar
2021-06-10€4MSD Eibar
2021-12-27€4MSC Braga
2022-05-31€4MSC Braga
2022-09-16€3.5MSC Braga
2022-11-01€3.5MSC Braga
2023-06-16€3MSC Braga
2023-09-29€2.5MSC Braga
2023-12-27€2MSC Braga
2024-06-06€1.5MSC Braga
2024-12-19€1MSC Braga
2025-05-30€1MSC Braga
2025-12-18€500kSC Braga
2026-05-28€400kSC Braga

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.904

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 12% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Oliveira appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).