AlexeiKoselev

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club: Atromitos Athens
League: Super League
Nationality: Moldova
Age: 32
Height: 200 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Koselev at €250k. Model A, which never saw Koselev during training, estimates €279k: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €381k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 14
Minutes: 1,260
Started: 14/14
Min / app: 90
Cards: 1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Koselev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Mar 2014
Peak: €2M; Sept 2019
Model target: €250k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 30; 7 club changes

Jun 2026€250kAtromitos AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Atromitos Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2014-03-28	€50k	Kuban Krasnodar (-2018)
2015-04-11	€175k	FC Tiraspol
2015-09-07	€250k	FC Sheriff Tiraspol
2016-05-10	€250k	FC Sheriff Tiraspol
2016-12-01	€250k	FC Sheriff Tiraspol
2017-06-02	€200k	FC Sheriff Tiraspol
2017-09-29	€250k	ACSM Politehnica Iasi
2017-12-27	€400k	ACSM Politehnica Iasi
2018-06-14	€300k	ACSM Politehnica Iasi
2018-10-04	€800k	Fortuna Sittard
2018-12-28	€1M	Fortuna Sittard
2019-03-13	€1.5M	Fortuna Sittard
2019-06-12	€1.5M	Fortuna Sittard
2019-09-19	€2M	Fortuna Sittard
2019-12-18	€2M	Fortuna Sittard
2020-04-08	€1.6M	Fortuna Sittard
2020-10-14	€1.6M	Fortuna Sittard
2021-01-06	€1.3M	Fortuna Sittard
2021-06-28	€1.3M	Júbilo Iwata
2022-01-14	€800k	Júbilo Iwata
2022-06-28	€600k	Júbilo Iwata
2023-01-06	€400k	Júbilo Iwata
2023-05-22	€400k	PAS Lamia 1964
2023-12-20	€400k	PAS Lamia 1964
2024-03-06	€450k	PAS Lamia 1964
2024-05-30	€450k	PAS Lamia 1964
2024-12-18	€400k	Atromitos Athens
2025-05-23	€350k	Atromitos Athens
2025-12-12	€300k	Atromitos Athens
2026-06-04	€250k	Atromitos Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.110

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 15% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 13% of the 485 goalkeepers.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Koselev appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).