FairValue

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Portrait of Dan Burn

Dan

Burn

CBEngland · Newcastle United

№ 134270Established €6.3M −0.46

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DanBurn

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
34
Height
201 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Burn at €4M. Model A, which never saw Burn during training, estimates €6.3M: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.58. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.46A €6.3M▼ −0.51B €6.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
84
Minutes
7,056
Goals
3
Assists
7
Started
79/84
Min / app
84
Cards
23Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Burn…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €6.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dan Burn's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 55th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 76th55thGoals74thAssists98thMinutes81stStarts95thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

7,056 this player2,860 defender median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Apr 2010
Peak
€12M
Jun 2022
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
5 club changes
Jun 2026€4MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-04-08€25kDarlington FC (- 2012)
2013-07-12€300kBirmingham City
2014-01-15€500kFulham FC
2014-08-25€500kFulham FC
2015-02-24€500kFulham FC
2015-09-24€500kFulham FC
2016-04-20€750kFulham FC
2016-09-01€750kWigan Athletic
2017-02-27€750kWigan Athletic
2018-09-24€3MWigan Athletic
2019-06-13€3MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-12-10€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-04-08€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-13€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€3.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-03-29€7MNewcastle United
2022-06-15€12MNewcastle United
2022-11-03€12MNewcastle United
2023-06-20€10MNewcastle United
2023-12-19€10MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€8MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€7MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€6MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€5MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€4MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.457

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Burn appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).