Abdoulie
Ceesay
CFThe Gambia · FC St. Pauli
Player dossierBundesliga
AbdoulieCeesay
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- FC St. Pauli
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- The Gambia
- Age
- 22
- Height
- 185 cm
- Foot
- –
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Ceesay at €1M. Model A, which never saw Ceesay during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 71% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×3.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.9M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 37
- Minutes
- 793
- Goals
- 6
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 5/37
- Min / app
- 21
- Cards
- 8Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ceesay…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
42% this player0% attacker median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jul 2024
- Peak
- €1M
- May 2026
- Model target
- €1M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 6
- 1 club change
May 2026: €1M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-12 | €25k | Paide Linnameeskond |
| 2024-11-11 | €200k | Paide Linnameeskond |
| 2025-03-27 | €500k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-06-05 | €500k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-12-19 | €800k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-05-27 | €1M | FC St. Pauli |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.255
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 7% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 29% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Ceesay appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- DzekoCFFC Schalke 04 · Bundesliga€1M
- GulácsiGKRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€1M
- GouweleeuwCBFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€1M
- BuschRB1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga€1M
- DzyubaCFAkron Tolyatti · attackers€1M
- PedroRWSS Lazio · attackers€1M
- DjuricCFUS Cremonese · attackers€1M
- YarmolenkoRWDynamo Kyiv · attackers€1M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).