FairValue

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Portrait of Tom Cairney

Tom

Cairney

CMScotland · Fulham FC

№ 123275Emerging €567k −0.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

TomCairney

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Scotland
Age
35
Height
185 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cairney at €500k. Model A, which never saw Cairney during training, estimates €567k: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €656k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €567k▼ −0.27B €656k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
1,893
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
15/57
Min / app
33
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cairney…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €567k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Tom Cairney's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 27th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 4th, Minutes, last 365 days 36th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals27thAssists33rdMinutes4thStarts36thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.19 this player0.08 midfielder median81st percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2010
Peak
€18M
Aug 2018
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
2 club changes
Jun 2026€500kFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-07-30€50kHull City
2010-08-13€750kHull City
2012-02-07€1.3MHull City
2012-06-22€1MHull City
2013-03-02€750kHull City
2013-07-11€750kHull City
2014-01-08€1.2MBlackburn Rovers
2014-08-19€2MBlackburn Rovers
2015-02-24€3MBlackburn Rovers
2015-09-24€4MFulham FC
2016-04-20€4MFulham FC
2016-09-01€6MFulham FC
2017-02-27€7MFulham FC
2017-09-18€10MFulham FC
2018-02-27€15MFulham FC
2018-08-13€18MFulham FC
2018-12-19€15MFulham FC
2019-06-13€15MFulham FC
2020-02-27€15MFulham FC
2020-04-08€12MFulham FC
2020-10-13€9MFulham FC
2021-03-18€9MFulham FC
2021-06-08€9MFulham FC
2021-11-24€6MFulham FC
2022-05-13€5MFulham FC
2022-09-15€3MFulham FC
2022-11-03€2MFulham FC
2023-06-20€2MFulham FC
2023-12-19€2MFulham FC
2024-05-27€2MFulham FC
2024-12-16€2MFulham FC
2025-05-30€1.5MFulham FC
2025-10-17€1MFulham FC
2025-12-09€750kFulham FC
2026-06-03€500kFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.126

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 3% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cairney appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).