Paul
McGinn
RBScotland · Motherwell FC
Player dossierPremiership
PaulMcGinn
RBRight-BackDefender
- Club
- Motherwell FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- Scotland
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 179 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values McGinn at €100k. Model A, which never saw McGinn during training, estimates €72k: the market value is 39% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €105k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 42
- Minutes
- 3,404
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 38/42
- Min / app
- 81
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for McGinn…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, last 365 days
Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.
2,792 this player1,687 defender median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Sept 2012
- Peak
- €525k
- Dec 2021
- Model target
- €100k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €100k, Motherwell FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-09-21 | €100k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2013-09-26 | €200k | Dumbarton FC |
| 2014-10-09 | €275k | Dundee FC |
| 2015-12-07 | €300k | Dundee FC |
| 2016-10-11 | €300k | Chesterfield FC |
| 2018-03-04 | €300k | Partick Thistle FC |
| 2018-08-08 | €350k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2019-01-03 | €350k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2019-08-20 | €350k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2020-02-05 | €350k | Hibernian FC |
| 2020-04-08 | €300k | Hibernian FC |
| 2020-07-21 | €300k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-01-18 | €400k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-06-28 | €400k | Hibernian FC |
| 2021-12-31 | €525k | Hibernian FC |
| 2022-06-27 | €500k | Hibernian FC |
| 2022-12-13 | €450k | Motherwell FC |
| 2023-03-22 | €400k | Motherwell FC |
| 2023-06-26 | €350k | Motherwell FC |
| 2023-12-05 | €250k | Motherwell FC |
| 2024-05-30 | €200k | Motherwell FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €150k | Motherwell FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €100k | Motherwell FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €100k | Motherwell FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €100k | Motherwell FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.331
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 1% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where McGinn appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BainGKFalkirk FC · Premiership€100k
- ShinnieDMAberdeen FC · Premiership€100k
- WilsonCBLivingston FC · Premiership€100k
- HoltCMSt. Johnstone FC · Premiership€100k
- FonteCBCasa Pia AC · defenders€100k
- NeustädterCBKVC Westerlo · defenders€100k
- SarıCBAntalyaspor · defenders€100k
- DalsgaardRBAarhus GF · defenders€100k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).