FairValue

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Aitor

Fernández

GKSpain · CA Osasuna

№ 118997Emerging €444k +0.12

Player dossierLaLiga

AitorFernández

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
CA Osasuna
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
35
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fernández at €500k. Model A, which never saw Fernández during training, estimates €444k: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €265k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.12A €444k▲ +0.64B €265k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
922
Started
9/11
Min / app
84
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fernández…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €444k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Aitor Fernández's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 15th, Starts 1st, Minutes, last 365 days 23rd, European club minutes 32nd15thMinutes1stStarts23rdRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2009
Peak
€10M
Mar 2020
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
5 club changes
Jun 2026€500kCA OsasunaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, CA Osasuna. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2009-07-22€100kCD Basconia
2010-08-15€300kBilbao Athletic
2013-02-06€300kVillarreal CF B
2013-05-10€400kVillarreal CF B
2014-07-20€400kVillarreal CF B
2015-01-23€500kVillarreal CF B
2015-09-20€300kVillarreal CF B
2016-07-15€400kCD Numancia
2017-01-24€400kCD Numancia
2017-06-29€600kCD Numancia
2018-01-01€800kCD Numancia
2018-05-30€800kCD Numancia
2018-12-21€800kLevante UD
2019-06-11€2.5MLevante UD
2019-12-20€7.5MLevante UD
2020-03-05€10MLevante UD
2020-04-08€8MLevante UD
2020-07-23€10MLevante UD
2020-10-08€10MLevante UD
2021-01-05€8MLevante UD
2021-06-10€6MLevante UD
2021-12-30€4MLevante UD
2022-03-21€3MLevante UD
2022-06-03€2.5MLevante UD
2022-11-07€2.5MCA Osasuna
2023-03-23€3MCA Osasuna
2023-06-13€3MCA Osasuna
2023-12-22€2.5MCA Osasuna
2024-03-21€2MCA Osasuna
2024-06-07€1.8MCA Osasuna
2024-12-27€1.5MCA Osasuna
2025-06-09€700kCA Osasuna
2025-12-12€600kCA Osasuna
2026-06-05€500kCA Osasuna

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.120

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 2% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fernández appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).