Marius
Müller
GKGermany · VfL Wolfsburg
Player dossierBundesliga
MariusMüller
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- VfL Wolfsburg
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 192 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Müller at €700k. Model A, which never saw Müller during training, estimates €434k: the market value is 61% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €461k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 8
- Minutes
- 654
- Started
- 7/8
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Müller…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% goalkeeper median32nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jun 2012
- Peak
- €2M
- Jan 2020
- Model target
- €700k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €700k, VfL Wolfsburg. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-06-29 | €50k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern U19 |
| 2012-07-05 | €100k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2013-01-04 | €100k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2013-06-29 | €200k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2014-01-20 | €300k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2014-06-30 | €400k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-01-13 | €400k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-07-01 | €400k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2015-10-22 | €900k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2016-02-11 | €1M | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2016-07-22 | €1.5M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-02-07 | €1M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-06-19 | €750k | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-01-22 | €750k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2018-06-19 | €750k | 1.FC Kaiserslautern |
| 2018-08-22 | €500k | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-12-18 | €500k | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-06-05 | €500k | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-10-07 | €1.5M | FC Luzern |
| 2020-01-06 | €2M | FC Luzern |
| 2020-04-08 | €1.6M | FC Luzern |
| 2020-07-31 | €2M | FC Luzern |
| 2020-12-28 | €2M | FC Luzern |
| 2021-04-15 | €1.8M | FC Luzern |
| 2021-06-23 | €2M | FC Luzern |
| 2022-01-03 | €1.5M | FC Luzern |
| 2022-06-08 | €1M | FC Luzern |
| 2022-11-10 | €1M | FC Luzern |
| 2023-06-07 | €1M | FC Luzern |
| 2023-12-15 | €1M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2024-03-22 | €800k | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2024-06-06 | €1M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2024-10-09 | €1.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2024-12-20 | €1.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2025-06-05 | €1.5M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2025-12-19 | €1M | VfL Wolfsburg |
| 2026-05-27 | €700k | VfL Wolfsburg |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.478
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 3% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 35% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Müller appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BlaswichGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€700k
- HornGKVfL Bochum · Bundesliga€700k
- BredlowGKVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€700k
- HoltmannLWVfL Bochum · Bundesliga€700k
- DmitrovicGKRCD Espanyol Barcelona · goalkeepers€700k
- DupéGKOGC Nice · goalkeepers€700k
- BrignoliGKAEK Athens · goalkeepers€700k
- PavlenkaGKPAOK Thessaloniki · goalkeepers€700k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).