FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Mohamed

Bamba

DMCote d'Ivoire · Gil Vicente FC

№ 1178475Emerging €883k +0.53

Player dossierLiga Portugal

MohamedBamba

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Gil Vicente FC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Age
21
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bamba at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Bamba during training, estimates €883k: the market value is 70% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.70. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.53A €883k▲ +0.32B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
17
Minutes
1,053
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
12/17
Min / app
62
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bamba…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €883k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mohamed Bamba's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 15th, Starts 53rd, Minutes, last 365 days 3rd, European club minutes 30th51stGoals8thAssists15thMinutes53rdStarts3rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

71% this player69% midfielder median53rd percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Mar 2025
Peak
€3M
May 2025
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
5
0 club changes
May 2026€1.5MGil Vicente FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Gil Vicente FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-03-31€300kGil Vicente FC
2025-05-30€3MGil Vicente FC
2025-12-18€3MGil Vicente FC
2026-03-19€2.5MGil Vicente FC
2026-05-28€1.5MGil Vicente FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.530

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bamba appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).